Volatility Analysis

Weekly Volatility Outlook: QQQ

QQQ implied volatility is at 22.11%. We break down the 7-day expected move and probability zones.

4 min read

Market Context

QQQ is trading at $609.65 with an annualized Implied Volatility (IV) of 22.11%.

With 7 days to expiration (Target: Feb 13, 2026), the market is pricing in the following potential range.

Analysis Date

Feb 06, 2026

Target Date

Feb 13, 2026

Price

$609.65

IV

22.11%

Volatility Math (7 Days)

To estimate the expected move, we convert annualized IV to the 7-day timeframe.

Formula: 22.11% × √(7/365) ≈ 3.06%.

In dollar terms, this is approximately ±$18.66.

The market expects QQQ to stay within ±3.06% about 68% of the time over the next 7 days.

Time Factor

0.1385

Exp. Move %

±3.06%

Exp. Move $

±$18.66

Probability Cone

The following table shows the statistical probability ranges based on current volatility.

68% Confidence

$590.98 — $628.32

80% Confidence

$585.72 — $633.58

90% Confidence

$578.94 — $640.36

95% Confidence

$573.06 — $646.24

Disclaimer

This analysis is a static projection based on current IV. Real-world events may cause price to move outside these bounds. Not investment advice.

Key takeaways

  • Current IV of 22.11% implies a ±3.06% move in 7 days.
  • The 68% confidence interval is $590.98 to $628.32.
  • Ranges are based on static IV; earnings or news can expand these significantly.