Volatility Analysis

Weekly Volatility Outlook: ORCL

ORCL implied volatility is at 63.16%. We break down the 7-day expected move and probability zones.

4 min read

Market Context

ORCL is trading at $142.82 with an annualized Implied Volatility (IV) of 63.16%.

With 7 days to expiration (Target: Feb 13, 2026), the market is pricing in the following potential range.

Analysis Date

Feb 06, 2026

Target Date

Feb 13, 2026

Price

$142.82

IV

63.16%

Volatility Math (7 Days)

To estimate the expected move, we convert annualized IV to the 7-day timeframe.

Formula: 63.16% × √(7/365) ≈ 8.75%.

In dollar terms, this is approximately ±$12.50.

The market expects ORCL to stay within ±8.75% about 68% of the time over the next 7 days.

Time Factor

0.1385

Exp. Move %

±8.75%

Exp. Move $

±$12.50

Probability Cone

The following table shows the statistical probability ranges based on current volatility.

68% Confidence

$130.33 — $155.31

80% Confidence

$126.81 — $158.83

90% Confidence

$122.27 — $163.37

95% Confidence

$118.34 — $167.30

Disclaimer

This analysis is a static projection based on current IV. Real-world events may cause price to move outside these bounds. Not investment advice.

Key takeaways

  • Current IV of 63.16% implies a ±8.75% move in 7 days.
  • The 68% confidence interval is $130.33 to $155.31.
  • Ranges are based on static IV; earnings or news can expand these significantly.