Volatility Analysis

Weekly Volatility Outlook: NVDA

NVDA implied volatility is at 43.58%. We break down the 7-day expected move and probability zones.

4 min read

Market Context

NVDA is trading at $185.41 with an annualized Implied Volatility (IV) of 43.58%.

With 7 days to expiration (Target: Feb 13, 2026), the market is pricing in the following potential range.

Analysis Date

Feb 06, 2026

Target Date

Feb 13, 2026

Price

$185.41

IV

43.58%

Volatility Math (7 Days)

To estimate the expected move, we convert annualized IV to the 7-day timeframe.

Formula: 43.58% × √(7/365) ≈ 6.03%.

In dollar terms, this is approximately ±$11.18.

The market expects NVDA to stay within ±6.03% about 68% of the time over the next 7 days.

Time Factor

0.1385

Exp. Move %

±6.03%

Exp. Move $

±$11.18

Probability Cone

The following table shows the statistical probability ranges based on current volatility.

68% Confidence

$174.22 — $196.60

80% Confidence

$171.07 — $199.75

90% Confidence

$167.00 — $203.82

95% Confidence

$163.48 — $207.34

Disclaimer

This analysis is a static projection based on current IV. Real-world events may cause price to move outside these bounds. Not investment advice.

Key takeaways

  • Current IV of 43.58% implies a ±6.03% move in 7 days.
  • The 68% confidence interval is $174.22 to $196.60.
  • Ranges are based on static IV; earnings or news can expand these significantly.