Volatility Analysis

Weekly Volatility Outlook: NFLX

NFLX implied volatility is at 32.95%. We break down the 7-day expected move and probability zones.

4 min read

Market Context

NFLX is trading at $82.20 with an annualized Implied Volatility (IV) of 32.95%.

With 7 days to expiration (Target: Feb 13, 2026), the market is pricing in the following potential range.

Analysis Date

Feb 06, 2026

Target Date

Feb 13, 2026

Price

$82.20

IV

32.95%

Volatility Math (7 Days)

To estimate the expected move, we convert annualized IV to the 7-day timeframe.

Formula: 32.95% × √(7/365) ≈ 4.56%.

In dollar terms, this is approximately ±$3.75.

The market expects NFLX to stay within ±4.56% about 68% of the time over the next 7 days.

Time Factor

0.1385

Exp. Move %

±4.56%

Exp. Move $

±$3.75

Probability Cone

The following table shows the statistical probability ranges based on current volatility.

68% Confidence

$78.45 — $85.95

80% Confidence

$77.39 — $87.01

90% Confidence

$76.03 — $88.37

95% Confidence

$74.85 — $89.55

Disclaimer

This analysis is a static projection based on current IV. Real-world events may cause price to move outside these bounds. Not investment advice.

Key takeaways

  • Current IV of 32.95% implies a ±4.56% move in 7 days.
  • The 68% confidence interval is $78.45 to $85.95.
  • Ranges are based on static IV; earnings or news can expand these significantly.