Volatility Analysis

Weekly Volatility Outlook: MSFT

MSFT implied volatility is at 30.45%. We break down the 7-day expected move and probability zones.

4 min read

Market Context

MSFT is trading at $401.14 with an annualized Implied Volatility (IV) of 30.45%.

With 7 days to expiration (Target: Feb 13, 2026), the market is pricing in the following potential range.

Analysis Date

Feb 06, 2026

Target Date

Feb 13, 2026

Price

$401.14

IV

30.45%

Volatility Math (7 Days)

To estimate the expected move, we convert annualized IV to the 7-day timeframe.

Formula: 30.45% × √(7/365) ≈ 4.22%.

In dollar terms, this is approximately ±$16.93.

The market expects MSFT to stay within ±4.22% about 68% of the time over the next 7 days.

Time Factor

0.1385

Exp. Move %

±4.22%

Exp. Move $

±$16.93

Probability Cone

The following table shows the statistical probability ranges based on current volatility.

68% Confidence

$384.22 — $418.06

80% Confidence

$379.45 — $422.83

90% Confidence

$373.31 — $428.97

95% Confidence

$367.98 — $434.30

Disclaimer

This analysis is a static projection based on current IV. Real-world events may cause price to move outside these bounds. Not investment advice.

Key takeaways

  • Current IV of 30.45% implies a ±4.22% move in 7 days.
  • The 68% confidence interval is $384.22 to $418.06.
  • Ranges are based on static IV; earnings or news can expand these significantly.