Volatility Analysis

Weekly Volatility Outlook: COIN

COIN implied volatility is at 101.76%. We break down the 7-day expected move and probability zones.

4 min read

Market Context

COIN is trading at $165.12 with an annualized Implied Volatility (IV) of 101.76%.

With 7 days to expiration (Target: Feb 13, 2026), the market is pricing in the following potential range.

Analysis Date

Feb 06, 2026

Target Date

Feb 13, 2026

Price

$165.12

IV

101.76%

Volatility Math (7 Days)

To estimate the expected move, we convert annualized IV to the 7-day timeframe.

Formula: 101.76% × √(7/365) ≈ 14.09%.

In dollar terms, this is approximately ±$23.27.

The market expects COIN to stay within ±14.09% about 68% of the time over the next 7 days.

Time Factor

0.1385

Exp. Move %

±14.09%

Exp. Move $

±$23.27

Probability Cone

The following table shows the statistical probability ranges based on current volatility.

68% Confidence

$141.85 — $188.39

80% Confidence

$135.29 — $194.95

90% Confidence

$126.84 — $203.40

95% Confidence

$119.51 — $210.73

Disclaimer

This analysis is a static projection based on current IV. Real-world events may cause price to move outside these bounds. Not investment advice.

Key takeaways

  • Current IV of 101.76% implies a ±14.09% move in 7 days.
  • The 68% confidence interval is $141.85 to $188.39.
  • Ranges are based on static IV; earnings or news can expand these significantly.