Volatility Analysis

Weekly Volatility Outlook: AMZN

AMZN implied volatility is at 35.58%. We break down the 7-day expected move and probability zones.

4 min read

Market Context

AMZN is trading at $210.32 with an annualized Implied Volatility (IV) of 35.58%.

With 7 days to expiration (Target: Feb 13, 2026), the market is pricing in the following potential range.

Analysis Date

Feb 06, 2026

Target Date

Feb 13, 2026

Price

$210.32

IV

35.58%

Volatility Math (7 Days)

To estimate the expected move, we convert annualized IV to the 7-day timeframe.

Formula: 35.58% × √(7/365) ≈ 4.93%.

In dollar terms, this is approximately ±$10.37.

The market expects AMZN to stay within ±4.93% about 68% of the time over the next 7 days.

Time Factor

0.1385

Exp. Move %

±4.93%

Exp. Move $

±$10.37

Probability Cone

The following table shows the statistical probability ranges based on current volatility.

68% Confidence

$199.96 — $220.68

80% Confidence

$197.03 — $223.61

90% Confidence

$193.27 — $227.37

95% Confidence

$190.01 — $230.63

Disclaimer

This analysis is a static projection based on current IV. Real-world events may cause price to move outside these bounds. Not investment advice.

Key takeaways

  • Current IV of 35.58% implies a ±4.93% move in 7 days.
  • The 68% confidence interval is $199.96 to $220.68.
  • Ranges are based on static IV; earnings or news can expand these significantly.