Volatility Analysis

Weekly Volatility Outlook: AAPL

AAPL implied volatility is at 24.68%. We break down the 7-day expected move and probability zones.

4 min read

Market Context

AAPL is trading at $278.12 with an annualized Implied Volatility (IV) of 24.68%.

With 7 days to expiration (Target: Feb 13, 2026), the market is pricing in the following potential range.

Analysis Date

Feb 06, 2026

Target Date

Feb 13, 2026

Price

$278.12

IV

24.68%

Volatility Math (7 Days)

To estimate the expected move, we convert annualized IV to the 7-day timeframe.

Formula: 24.68% × √(7/365) ≈ 3.42%.

In dollar terms, this is approximately ±$9.51.

The market expects AAPL to stay within ±3.42% about 68% of the time over the next 7 days.

Time Factor

0.1385

Exp. Move %

±3.42%

Exp. Move $

±$9.51

Probability Cone

The following table shows the statistical probability ranges based on current volatility.

68% Confidence

$268.61 — $287.63

80% Confidence

$265.93 — $290.31

90% Confidence

$262.48 — $293.76

95% Confidence

$259.49 — $296.75

Disclaimer

This analysis is a static projection based on current IV. Real-world events may cause price to move outside these bounds. Not investment advice.

Key takeaways

  • Current IV of 24.68% implies a ±3.42% move in 7 days.
  • The 68% confidence interval is $268.61 to $287.63.
  • Ranges are based on static IV; earnings or news can expand these significantly.