Volatility Analysis

Weekly Volatility Outlook: TSLA

TSLA implied volatility is at 42.92%. We break down the 7-day expected move and probability zones.

4 min read

Market Context

TSLA is trading at $430.41 with an annualized Implied Volatility (IV) of 42.92%.

With 7 days to expiration (Target: Feb 06, 2026), the market is pricing in the following potential range.

Analysis Date

Jan 30, 2026

Target Date

Feb 06, 2026

Price

$430.41

IV

42.92%

Volatility Math (7 Days)

To estimate the expected move, we convert annualized IV to the 7-day timeframe.

Formula: 42.92% × √(7/365) ≈ 5.94%.

In dollar terms, this is approximately ±$25.57.

The market expects TSLA to stay within ±5.94% about 68% of the time over the next 7 days.

Time Factor

0.1385

Exp. Move %

±5.94%

Exp. Move $

±$25.57

Probability Cone

The following table shows the statistical probability ranges based on current volatility.

68% Confidence

$404.83 — $455.99

80% Confidence

$397.61 — $463.21

90% Confidence

$388.33 — $472.49

95% Confidence

$380.27 — $480.55

Disclaimer

This analysis is a static projection based on current IV. Real-world events may cause price to move outside these bounds. Not investment advice.

Key takeaways

  • Current IV of 42.92% implies a ±5.94% move in 7 days.
  • The 68% confidence interval is $404.83 to $455.99.
  • Ranges are based on static IV; earnings or news can expand these significantly.