Volatility Analysis

Weekly Volatility Outlook: SPY

SPY implied volatility is at 15.32%. We break down the 7-day expected move and probability zones.

4 min read

Market Context

SPY is trading at $691.97 with an annualized Implied Volatility (IV) of 15.32%.

With 7 days to expiration (Target: Feb 06, 2026), the market is pricing in the following potential range.

Analysis Date

Jan 30, 2026

Target Date

Feb 06, 2026

Price

$691.97

IV

15.32%

Volatility Math (7 Days)

To estimate the expected move, we convert annualized IV to the 7-day timeframe.

Formula: 15.32% × √(7/365) ≈ 2.12%.

In dollar terms, this is approximately ±$14.67.

The market expects SPY to stay within ±2.12% about 68% of the time over the next 7 days.

Time Factor

0.1385

Exp. Move %

±2.12%

Exp. Move $

±$14.67

Probability Cone

The following table shows the statistical probability ranges based on current volatility.

68% Confidence

$677.29 — $706.65

80% Confidence

$673.15 — $710.79

90% Confidence

$667.82 — $716.12

95% Confidence

$663.19 — $720.75

Disclaimer

This analysis is a static projection based on current IV. Real-world events may cause price to move outside these bounds. Not investment advice.

Key takeaways

  • Current IV of 15.32% implies a ±2.12% move in 7 days.
  • The 68% confidence interval is $677.29 to $706.65.
  • Ranges are based on static IV; earnings or news can expand these significantly.