Volatility Analysis

Weekly Volatility Outlook: SMCI

SMCI implied volatility is at 112.22%. We break down the 7-day expected move and probability zones.

4 min read

Market Context

SMCI is trading at $29.11 with an annualized Implied Volatility (IV) of 112.22%.

With 7 days to expiration (Target: Feb 06, 2026), the market is pricing in the following potential range.

Analysis Date

Jan 30, 2026

Target Date

Feb 06, 2026

Price

$29.11

IV

112.22%

Volatility Math (7 Days)

To estimate the expected move, we convert annualized IV to the 7-day timeframe.

Formula: 112.22% × √(7/365) ≈ 15.54%.

In dollar terms, this is approximately ±$4.52.

The market expects SMCI to stay within ±15.54% about 68% of the time over the next 7 days.

Time Factor

0.1385

Exp. Move %

±15.54%

Exp. Move $

±$4.52

Probability Cone

The following table shows the statistical probability ranges based on current volatility.

68% Confidence

$24.59 — $33.63

80% Confidence

$23.31 — $34.91

90% Confidence

$21.67 — $36.55

95% Confidence

$20.24 — $37.98

Disclaimer

This analysis is a static projection based on current IV. Real-world events may cause price to move outside these bounds. Not investment advice.

Key takeaways

  • Current IV of 112.22% implies a ±15.54% move in 7 days.
  • The 68% confidence interval is $24.59 to $33.63.
  • Ranges are based on static IV; earnings or news can expand these significantly.