Volatility Analysis

Weekly Volatility Outlook: QQQ

QQQ implied volatility is at 20.76%. We break down the 7-day expected move and probability zones.

4 min read

Market Context

QQQ is trading at $621.87 with an annualized Implied Volatility (IV) of 20.76%.

With 7 days to expiration (Target: Feb 06, 2026), the market is pricing in the following potential range.

Analysis Date

Jan 30, 2026

Target Date

Feb 06, 2026

Price

$621.87

IV

20.76%

Volatility Math (7 Days)

To estimate the expected move, we convert annualized IV to the 7-day timeframe.

Formula: 20.76% × √(7/365) ≈ 2.87%.

In dollar terms, this is approximately ±$17.85.

The market expects QQQ to stay within ±2.87% about 68% of the time over the next 7 days.

Time Factor

0.1385

Exp. Move %

±2.87%

Exp. Move $

±$17.85

Probability Cone

The following table shows the statistical probability ranges based on current volatility.

68% Confidence

$604.00 — $639.74

80% Confidence

$598.95 — $644.79

90% Confidence

$592.47 — $651.27

95% Confidence

$586.84 — $656.90

Disclaimer

This analysis is a static projection based on current IV. Real-world events may cause price to move outside these bounds. Not investment advice.

Key takeaways

  • Current IV of 20.76% implies a ±2.87% move in 7 days.
  • The 68% confidence interval is $604.00 to $639.74.
  • Ranges are based on static IV; earnings or news can expand these significantly.