Volatility Analysis

Weekly Volatility Outlook: ORCL

ORCL implied volatility is at 57.24%. We break down the 7-day expected move and probability zones.

4 min read

Market Context

ORCL is trading at $164.58 with an annualized Implied Volatility (IV) of 57.24%.

With 7 days to expiration (Target: Feb 06, 2026), the market is pricing in the following potential range.

Analysis Date

Jan 30, 2026

Target Date

Feb 06, 2026

Price

$164.58

IV

57.24%

Volatility Math (7 Days)

To estimate the expected move, we convert annualized IV to the 7-day timeframe.

Formula: 57.24% × √(7/365) ≈ 7.93%.

In dollar terms, this is approximately ±$13.05.

The market expects ORCL to stay within ±7.93% about 68% of the time over the next 7 days.

Time Factor

0.1385

Exp. Move %

±7.93%

Exp. Move $

±$13.05

Probability Cone

The following table shows the statistical probability ranges based on current volatility.

68% Confidence

$151.53 — $177.63

80% Confidence

$147.86 — $181.30

90% Confidence

$143.12 — $186.04

95% Confidence

$139.01 — $190.15

Disclaimer

This analysis is a static projection based on current IV. Real-world events may cause price to move outside these bounds. Not investment advice.

Key takeaways

  • Current IV of 57.24% implies a ±7.93% move in 7 days.
  • The 68% confidence interval is $151.53 to $177.63.
  • Ranges are based on static IV; earnings or news can expand these significantly.