Volatility Analysis

Weekly Volatility Outlook: NVDA

NVDA implied volatility is at 40.57%. We break down the 7-day expected move and probability zones.

4 min read

Market Context

NVDA is trading at $191.13 with an annualized Implied Volatility (IV) of 40.57%.

With 7 days to expiration (Target: Feb 06, 2026), the market is pricing in the following potential range.

Analysis Date

Jan 30, 2026

Target Date

Feb 06, 2026

Price

$191.13

IV

40.57%

Volatility Math (7 Days)

To estimate the expected move, we convert annualized IV to the 7-day timeframe.

Formula: 40.57% × √(7/365) ≈ 5.62%.

In dollar terms, this is approximately ±$10.74.

The market expects NVDA to stay within ±5.62% about 68% of the time over the next 7 days.

Time Factor

0.1385

Exp. Move %

±5.62%

Exp. Move $

±$10.74

Probability Cone

The following table shows the statistical probability ranges based on current volatility.

68% Confidence

$180.39 — $201.87

80% Confidence

$177.36 — $204.90

90% Confidence

$173.46 — $208.80

95% Confidence

$170.08 — $212.18

Disclaimer

This analysis is a static projection based on current IV. Real-world events may cause price to move outside these bounds. Not investment advice.

Key takeaways

  • Current IV of 40.57% implies a ±5.62% move in 7 days.
  • The 68% confidence interval is $180.39 to $201.87.
  • Ranges are based on static IV; earnings or news can expand these significantly.