Volatility Analysis

Weekly Volatility Outlook: MSFT

MSFT implied volatility is at 27.69%. We break down the 7-day expected move and probability zones.

4 min read

Market Context

MSFT is trading at $430.29 with an annualized Implied Volatility (IV) of 27.69%.

With 7 days to expiration (Target: Feb 06, 2026), the market is pricing in the following potential range.

Analysis Date

Jan 30, 2026

Target Date

Feb 06, 2026

Price

$430.29

IV

27.69%

Volatility Math (7 Days)

To estimate the expected move, we convert annualized IV to the 7-day timeframe.

Formula: 27.69% × √(7/365) ≈ 3.83%.

In dollar terms, this is approximately ±$16.48.

The market expects MSFT to stay within ±3.83% about 68% of the time over the next 7 days.

Time Factor

0.1385

Exp. Move %

±3.83%

Exp. Move $

±$16.48

Probability Cone

The following table shows the statistical probability ranges based on current volatility.

68% Confidence

$413.79 — $446.79

80% Confidence

$409.14 — $451.44

90% Confidence

$403.15 — $457.43

95% Confidence

$397.96 — $462.62

Disclaimer

This analysis is a static projection based on current IV. Real-world events may cause price to move outside these bounds. Not investment advice.

Key takeaways

  • Current IV of 27.69% implies a ±3.83% move in 7 days.
  • The 68% confidence interval is $413.79 to $446.79.
  • Ranges are based on static IV; earnings or news can expand these significantly.