Volatility Analysis

Weekly Volatility Outlook: META

META implied volatility is at 30.62%. We break down the 7-day expected move and probability zones.

4 min read

Market Context

META is trading at $716.50 with an annualized Implied Volatility (IV) of 30.62%.

With 7 days to expiration (Target: Feb 06, 2026), the market is pricing in the following potential range.

Analysis Date

Jan 30, 2026

Target Date

Feb 06, 2026

Price

$716.50

IV

30.62%

Volatility Math (7 Days)

To estimate the expected move, we convert annualized IV to the 7-day timeframe.

Formula: 30.62% × √(7/365) ≈ 4.24%.

In dollar terms, this is approximately ±$30.38.

The market expects META to stay within ±4.24% about 68% of the time over the next 7 days.

Time Factor

0.1385

Exp. Move %

±4.24%

Exp. Move $

±$30.38

Probability Cone

The following table shows the statistical probability ranges based on current volatility.

68% Confidence

$686.12 — $746.88

80% Confidence

$677.55 — $755.45

90% Confidence

$666.53 — $766.47

95% Confidence

$656.96 — $776.04

Disclaimer

This analysis is a static projection based on current IV. Real-world events may cause price to move outside these bounds. Not investment advice.

Key takeaways

  • Current IV of 30.62% implies a ±4.24% move in 7 days.
  • The 68% confidence interval is $686.12 to $746.88.
  • Ranges are based on static IV; earnings or news can expand these significantly.