Volatility Analysis

Weekly Volatility Outlook: COIN

COIN implied volatility is at 60.37%. We break down the 7-day expected move and probability zones.

4 min read

Market Context

COIN is trading at $194.74 with an annualized Implied Volatility (IV) of 60.37%.

With 7 days to expiration (Target: Feb 06, 2026), the market is pricing in the following potential range.

Analysis Date

Jan 30, 2026

Target Date

Feb 06, 2026

Price

$194.74

IV

60.37%

Volatility Math (7 Days)

To estimate the expected move, we convert annualized IV to the 7-day timeframe.

Formula: 60.37% × √(7/365) ≈ 8.36%.

In dollar terms, this is approximately ±$16.28.

The market expects COIN to stay within ±8.36% about 68% of the time over the next 7 days.

Time Factor

0.1385

Exp. Move %

±8.36%

Exp. Move $

±$16.28

Probability Cone

The following table shows the statistical probability ranges based on current volatility.

68% Confidence

$178.46 — $211.02

80% Confidence

$173.87 — $215.61

90% Confidence

$167.96 — $221.52

95% Confidence

$162.83 — $226.65

Disclaimer

This analysis is a static projection based on current IV. Real-world events may cause price to move outside these bounds. Not investment advice.

Key takeaways

  • Current IV of 60.37% implies a ±8.36% move in 7 days.
  • The 68% confidence interval is $178.46 to $211.02.
  • Ranges are based on static IV; earnings or news can expand these significantly.