Volatility Analysis

Weekly Volatility Outlook: AMZN

AMZN implied volatility is at 68.27%. We break down the 7-day expected move and probability zones.

4 min read

Market Context

AMZN is trading at $239.30 with an annualized Implied Volatility (IV) of 68.27%.

With 7 days to expiration (Target: Feb 06, 2026), the market is pricing in the following potential range.

Analysis Date

Jan 30, 2026

Target Date

Feb 06, 2026

Price

$239.30

IV

68.27%

Volatility Math (7 Days)

To estimate the expected move, we convert annualized IV to the 7-day timeframe.

Formula: 68.27% × √(7/365) ≈ 9.45%.

In dollar terms, this is approximately ±$22.61.

The market expects AMZN to stay within ±9.45% about 68% of the time over the next 7 days.

Time Factor

0.1385

Exp. Move %

±9.45%

Exp. Move $

±$22.61

Probability Cone

The following table shows the statistical probability ranges based on current volatility.

68% Confidence

$216.68 — $261.92

80% Confidence

$210.30 — $268.30

90% Confidence

$202.08 — $276.52

95% Confidence

$194.96 — $283.64

Disclaimer

This analysis is a static projection based on current IV. Real-world events may cause price to move outside these bounds. Not investment advice.

Key takeaways

  • Current IV of 68.27% implies a ±9.45% move in 7 days.
  • The 68% confidence interval is $216.68 to $261.92.
  • Ranges are based on static IV; earnings or news can expand these significantly.