Volatility Analysis

Weekly Volatility Outlook: AAPL

AAPL implied volatility is at 27.83%. We break down the 7-day expected move and probability zones.

4 min read

Market Context

AAPL is trading at $259.48 with an annualized Implied Volatility (IV) of 27.83%.

With 7 days to expiration (Target: Feb 06, 2026), the market is pricing in the following potential range.

Analysis Date

Jan 30, 2026

Target Date

Feb 06, 2026

Price

$259.48

IV

27.83%

Volatility Math (7 Days)

To estimate the expected move, we convert annualized IV to the 7-day timeframe.

Formula: 27.83% × √(7/365) ≈ 3.85%.

In dollar terms, this is approximately ±$9.99.

The market expects AAPL to stay within ±3.85% about 68% of the time over the next 7 days.

Time Factor

0.1385

Exp. Move %

±3.85%

Exp. Move $

±$9.99

Probability Cone

The following table shows the statistical probability ranges based on current volatility.

68% Confidence

$249.48 — $269.48

80% Confidence

$246.66 — $272.30

90% Confidence

$243.03 — $275.93

95% Confidence

$239.88 — $279.08

Disclaimer

This analysis is a static projection based on current IV. Real-world events may cause price to move outside these bounds. Not investment advice.

Key takeaways

  • Current IV of 27.83% implies a ±3.85% move in 7 days.
  • The 68% confidence interval is $249.48 to $269.48.
  • Ranges are based on static IV; earnings or news can expand these significantly.