Volatility Analysis

Weekly Volatility Outlook: TSLA

TSLA implied volatility is at 56.72%. We break down the 7-day expected move and probability zones.

4 min read

Market Context

TSLA is trading at $449.06 with an annualized Implied Volatility (IV) of 56.72%.

With 7 days to expiration (Target: Jan 30, 2026), the market is pricing in the following potential range.

Analysis Date

Jan 23, 2026

Target Date

Jan 30, 2026

Price

$449.06

IV

56.72%

Volatility Math (7 Days)

To estimate the expected move, we convert annualized IV to the 7-day timeframe.

Formula: 56.72% × √(7/365) ≈ 7.85%.

In dollar terms, this is approximately ±$35.25.

The market expects TSLA to stay within ±7.85% about 68% of the time over the next 7 days.

Time Factor

0.1385

Exp. Move %

±7.85%

Exp. Move $

±$35.25

Probability Cone

The following table shows the statistical probability ranges based on current volatility.

68% Confidence

$413.79 — $484.33

80% Confidence

$403.84 — $494.28

90% Confidence

$391.04 — $507.08

95% Confidence

$379.93 — $518.19

Disclaimer

This analysis is a static projection based on current IV. Real-world events may cause price to move outside these bounds. Not investment advice.

Key takeaways

  • Current IV of 56.72% implies a ±7.85% move in 7 days.
  • The 68% confidence interval is $413.79 to $484.33.
  • Ranges are based on static IV; earnings or news can expand these significantly.