Volatility Analysis

Weekly Volatility Outlook: SPY

SPY implied volatility is at 14.07%. We break down the 7-day expected move and probability zones.

4 min read

Market Context

SPY is trading at $689.23 with an annualized Implied Volatility (IV) of 14.07%.

With 7 days to expiration (Target: Jan 30, 2026), the market is pricing in the following potential range.

Analysis Date

Jan 23, 2026

Target Date

Jan 30, 2026

Price

$689.23

IV

14.07%

Volatility Math (7 Days)

To estimate the expected move, we convert annualized IV to the 7-day timeframe.

Formula: 14.07% × √(7/365) ≈ 1.95%.

In dollar terms, this is approximately ±$13.44.

The market expects SPY to stay within ±1.95% about 68% of the time over the next 7 days.

Time Factor

0.1385

Exp. Move %

±1.95%

Exp. Move $

±$13.44

Probability Cone

The following table shows the statistical probability ranges based on current volatility.

68% Confidence

$675.80 — $702.66

80% Confidence

$672.01 — $706.45

90% Confidence

$667.14 — $711.32

95% Confidence

$662.91 — $715.55

Disclaimer

This analysis is a static projection based on current IV. Real-world events may cause price to move outside these bounds. Not investment advice.

Key takeaways

  • Current IV of 14.07% implies a ±1.95% move in 7 days.
  • The 68% confidence interval is $675.80 to $702.66.
  • Ranges are based on static IV; earnings or news can expand these significantly.