Volatility Analysis

Weekly Volatility Outlook: SMCI

SMCI implied volatility is at 70.35%. We break down the 7-day expected move and probability zones.

4 min read

Market Context

SMCI is trading at $31.70 with an annualized Implied Volatility (IV) of 70.35%.

With 7 days to expiration (Target: Jan 30, 2026), the market is pricing in the following potential range.

Analysis Date

Jan 23, 2026

Target Date

Jan 30, 2026

Price

$31.70

IV

70.35%

Volatility Math (7 Days)

To estimate the expected move, we convert annualized IV to the 7-day timeframe.

Formula: 70.35% × √(7/365) ≈ 9.74%.

In dollar terms, this is approximately ±$3.09.

The market expects SMCI to stay within ±9.74% about 68% of the time over the next 7 days.

Time Factor

0.1385

Exp. Move %

±9.74%

Exp. Move $

±$3.09

Probability Cone

The following table shows the statistical probability ranges based on current volatility.

68% Confidence

$28.61 — $34.79

80% Confidence

$27.74 — $35.66

90% Confidence

$26.62 — $36.78

95% Confidence

$25.65 — $37.75

Disclaimer

This analysis is a static projection based on current IV. Real-world events may cause price to move outside these bounds. Not investment advice.

Key takeaways

  • Current IV of 70.35% implies a ±9.74% move in 7 days.
  • The 68% confidence interval is $28.61 to $34.79.
  • Ranges are based on static IV; earnings or news can expand these significantly.