Volatility Analysis

Weekly Volatility Outlook: RKLB

RKLB implied volatility is at 87.29%. We break down the 7-day expected move and probability zones.

4 min read

Market Context

RKLB is trading at $88.90 with an annualized Implied Volatility (IV) of 87.29%.

With 7 days to expiration (Target: Jan 30, 2026), the market is pricing in the following potential range.

Analysis Date

Jan 23, 2026

Target Date

Jan 30, 2026

Price

$88.90

IV

87.29%

Volatility Math (7 Days)

To estimate the expected move, we convert annualized IV to the 7-day timeframe.

Formula: 87.29% × √(7/365) ≈ 12.09%.

In dollar terms, this is approximately ±$10.75.

The market expects RKLB to stay within ±12.09% about 68% of the time over the next 7 days.

Time Factor

0.1385

Exp. Move %

±12.09%

Exp. Move $

±$10.75

Probability Cone

The following table shows the statistical probability ranges based on current volatility.

68% Confidence

$78.15 — $99.65

80% Confidence

$75.12 — $102.68

90% Confidence

$71.22 — $106.58

95% Confidence

$67.84 — $109.96

Disclaimer

This analysis is a static projection based on current IV. Real-world events may cause price to move outside these bounds. Not investment advice.

Key takeaways

  • Current IV of 87.29% implies a ±12.09% move in 7 days.
  • The 68% confidence interval is $78.15 to $99.65.
  • Ranges are based on static IV; earnings or news can expand these significantly.