Volatility Analysis

Weekly Volatility Outlook: QQQ

QQQ implied volatility is at 19.31%. We break down the 7-day expected move and probability zones.

4 min read

Market Context

QQQ is trading at $622.72 with an annualized Implied Volatility (IV) of 19.31%.

With 7 days to expiration (Target: Jan 30, 2026), the market is pricing in the following potential range.

Analysis Date

Jan 23, 2026

Target Date

Jan 30, 2026

Price

$622.72

IV

19.31%

Volatility Math (7 Days)

To estimate the expected move, we convert annualized IV to the 7-day timeframe.

Formula: 19.31% × √(7/365) ≈ 2.67%.

In dollar terms, this is approximately ±$16.63.

The market expects QQQ to stay within ±2.67% about 68% of the time over the next 7 days.

Time Factor

0.1385

Exp. Move %

±2.67%

Exp. Move $

±$16.63

Probability Cone

The following table shows the statistical probability ranges based on current volatility.

68% Confidence

$606.07 — $639.37

80% Confidence

$601.37 — $644.07

90% Confidence

$595.33 — $650.11

95% Confidence

$590.08 — $655.36

Disclaimer

This analysis is a static projection based on current IV. Real-world events may cause price to move outside these bounds. Not investment advice.

Key takeaways

  • Current IV of 19.31% implies a ±2.67% move in 7 days.
  • The 68% confidence interval is $606.07 to $639.37.
  • Ranges are based on static IV; earnings or news can expand these significantly.