Volatility Analysis

Weekly Volatility Outlook: ORCL

ORCL implied volatility is at 49.92%. We break down the 7-day expected move and probability zones.

4 min read

Market Context

ORCL is trading at $177.16 with an annualized Implied Volatility (IV) of 49.92%.

With 7 days to expiration (Target: Jan 30, 2026), the market is pricing in the following potential range.

Analysis Date

Jan 23, 2026

Target Date

Jan 30, 2026

Price

$177.16

IV

49.92%

Volatility Math (7 Days)

To estimate the expected move, we convert annualized IV to the 7-day timeframe.

Formula: 49.92% × √(7/365) ≈ 6.91%.

In dollar terms, this is approximately ±$12.24.

The market expects ORCL to stay within ±6.91% about 68% of the time over the next 7 days.

Time Factor

0.1385

Exp. Move %

±6.91%

Exp. Move $

±$12.24

Probability Cone

The following table shows the statistical probability ranges based on current volatility.

68% Confidence

$164.91 — $189.41

80% Confidence

$161.46 — $192.86

90% Confidence

$157.01 — $197.31

95% Confidence

$153.16 — $201.16

Disclaimer

This analysis is a static projection based on current IV. Real-world events may cause price to move outside these bounds. Not investment advice.

Key takeaways

  • Current IV of 49.92% implies a ±6.91% move in 7 days.
  • The 68% confidence interval is $164.91 to $189.41.
  • Ranges are based on static IV; earnings or news can expand these significantly.