Volatility Analysis

Weekly Volatility Outlook: NVDA

NVDA implied volatility is at 37.86%. We break down the 7-day expected move and probability zones.

4 min read

Market Context

NVDA is trading at $187.67 with an annualized Implied Volatility (IV) of 37.86%.

With 7 days to expiration (Target: Jan 30, 2026), the market is pricing in the following potential range.

Analysis Date

Jan 23, 2026

Target Date

Jan 30, 2026

Price

$187.67

IV

37.86%

Volatility Math (7 Days)

To estimate the expected move, we convert annualized IV to the 7-day timeframe.

Formula: 37.86% × √(7/365) ≈ 5.24%.

In dollar terms, this is approximately ±$9.83.

The market expects NVDA to stay within ±5.24% about 68% of the time over the next 7 days.

Time Factor

0.1385

Exp. Move %

±5.24%

Exp. Move $

±$9.83

Probability Cone

The following table shows the statistical probability ranges based on current volatility.

68% Confidence

$177.83 — $197.51

80% Confidence

$175.05 — $200.29

90% Confidence

$171.48 — $203.86

95% Confidence

$168.38 — $206.96

Disclaimer

This analysis is a static projection based on current IV. Real-world events may cause price to move outside these bounds. Not investment advice.

Key takeaways

  • Current IV of 37.86% implies a ±5.24% move in 7 days.
  • The 68% confidence interval is $177.83 to $197.51.
  • Ranges are based on static IV; earnings or news can expand these significantly.