Volatility Analysis

Weekly Volatility Outlook: MSFT

MSFT implied volatility is at 48.94%. We break down the 7-day expected move and probability zones.

4 min read

Market Context

MSFT is trading at $465.95 with an annualized Implied Volatility (IV) of 48.94%.

With 7 days to expiration (Target: Jan 30, 2026), the market is pricing in the following potential range.

Analysis Date

Jan 23, 2026

Target Date

Jan 30, 2026

Price

$465.95

IV

48.94%

Volatility Math (7 Days)

To estimate the expected move, we convert annualized IV to the 7-day timeframe.

Formula: 48.94% × √(7/365) ≈ 6.78%.

In dollar terms, this is approximately ±$31.59.

The market expects MSFT to stay within ±6.78% about 68% of the time over the next 7 days.

Time Factor

0.1385

Exp. Move %

±6.78%

Exp. Move $

±$31.59

Probability Cone

The following table shows the statistical probability ranges based on current volatility.

68% Confidence

$434.37 — $497.53

80% Confidence

$425.47 — $506.43

90% Confidence

$414.00 — $517.90

95% Confidence

$404.05 — $527.85

Disclaimer

This analysis is a static projection based on current IV. Real-world events may cause price to move outside these bounds. Not investment advice.

Key takeaways

  • Current IV of 48.94% implies a ±6.78% move in 7 days.
  • The 68% confidence interval is $434.37 to $497.53.
  • Ranges are based on static IV; earnings or news can expand these significantly.