Volatility Analysis

Weekly Volatility Outlook: META

META implied volatility is at 60.38%. We break down the 7-day expected move and probability zones.

4 min read

Market Context

META is trading at $658.76 with an annualized Implied Volatility (IV) of 60.38%.

With 7 days to expiration (Target: Jan 30, 2026), the market is pricing in the following potential range.

Analysis Date

Jan 23, 2026

Target Date

Jan 30, 2026

Price

$658.76

IV

60.38%

Volatility Math (7 Days)

To estimate the expected move, we convert annualized IV to the 7-day timeframe.

Formula: 60.38% × √(7/365) ≈ 8.36%.

In dollar terms, this is approximately ±$55.07.

The market expects META to stay within ±8.36% about 68% of the time over the next 7 days.

Time Factor

0.1385

Exp. Move %

±8.36%

Exp. Move $

±$55.07

Probability Cone

The following table shows the statistical probability ranges based on current volatility.

68% Confidence

$603.68 — $713.84

80% Confidence

$588.14 — $729.38

90% Confidence

$568.15 — $749.37

95% Confidence

$550.80 — $766.72

Disclaimer

This analysis is a static projection based on current IV. Real-world events may cause price to move outside these bounds. Not investment advice.

Key takeaways

  • Current IV of 60.38% implies a ±8.36% move in 7 days.
  • The 68% confidence interval is $603.68 to $713.84.
  • Ranges are based on static IV; earnings or news can expand these significantly.