Volatility Analysis

Weekly Volatility Outlook: FCX

FCX implied volatility is at 43.76%. We break down the 7-day expected move and probability zones.

4 min read

Market Context

FCX is trading at $60.41 with an annualized Implied Volatility (IV) of 43.76%.

With 7 days to expiration (Target: Jan 30, 2026), the market is pricing in the following potential range.

Analysis Date

Jan 23, 2026

Target Date

Jan 30, 2026

Price

$60.41

IV

43.76%

Volatility Math (7 Days)

To estimate the expected move, we convert annualized IV to the 7-day timeframe.

Formula: 43.76% × √(7/365) ≈ 6.06%.

In dollar terms, this is approximately ±$3.66.

The market expects FCX to stay within ±6.06% about 68% of the time over the next 7 days.

Time Factor

0.1385

Exp. Move %

±6.06%

Exp. Move $

±$3.66

Probability Cone

The following table shows the statistical probability ranges based on current volatility.

68% Confidence

$56.75 — $64.07

80% Confidence

$55.72 — $65.10

90% Confidence

$54.39 — $66.43

95% Confidence

$53.23 — $67.59

Disclaimer

This analysis is a static projection based on current IV. Real-world events may cause price to move outside these bounds. Not investment advice.

Key takeaways

  • Current IV of 43.76% implies a ±6.06% move in 7 days.
  • The 68% confidence interval is $56.75 to $64.07.
  • Ranges are based on static IV; earnings or news can expand these significantly.