Volatility Analysis

Weekly Volatility Outlook: COIN

COIN implied volatility is at 49.62%. We break down the 7-day expected move and probability zones.

4 min read

Market Context

COIN is trading at $216.95 with an annualized Implied Volatility (IV) of 49.62%.

With 7 days to expiration (Target: Jan 30, 2026), the market is pricing in the following potential range.

Analysis Date

Jan 23, 2026

Target Date

Jan 30, 2026

Price

$216.95

IV

49.62%

Volatility Math (7 Days)

To estimate the expected move, we convert annualized IV to the 7-day timeframe.

Formula: 49.62% × √(7/365) ≈ 6.87%.

In dollar terms, this is approximately ±$14.90.

The market expects COIN to stay within ±6.87% about 68% of the time over the next 7 days.

Time Factor

0.1385

Exp. Move %

±6.87%

Exp. Move $

±$14.90

Probability Cone

The following table shows the statistical probability ranges based on current volatility.

68% Confidence

$202.04 — $231.86

80% Confidence

$197.84 — $236.06

90% Confidence

$192.43 — $241.47

95% Confidence

$187.73 — $246.17

Disclaimer

This analysis is a static projection based on current IV. Real-world events may cause price to move outside these bounds. Not investment advice.

Key takeaways

  • Current IV of 49.62% implies a ±6.87% move in 7 days.
  • The 68% confidence interval is $202.04 to $231.86.
  • Ranges are based on static IV; earnings or news can expand these significantly.