Volatility Analysis

Weekly Volatility Outlook: AMZN

AMZN implied volatility is at 29.73%. We break down the 7-day expected move and probability zones.

4 min read

Market Context

AMZN is trading at $239.16 with an annualized Implied Volatility (IV) of 29.73%.

With 7 days to expiration (Target: Jan 30, 2026), the market is pricing in the following potential range.

Analysis Date

Jan 23, 2026

Target Date

Jan 30, 2026

Price

$239.16

IV

29.73%

Volatility Math (7 Days)

To estimate the expected move, we convert annualized IV to the 7-day timeframe.

Formula: 29.73% × √(7/365) ≈ 4.12%.

In dollar terms, this is approximately ±$9.85.

The market expects AMZN to stay within ±4.12% about 68% of the time over the next 7 days.

Time Factor

0.1385

Exp. Move %

±4.12%

Exp. Move $

±$9.85

Probability Cone

The following table shows the statistical probability ranges based on current volatility.

68% Confidence

$229.31 — $249.01

80% Confidence

$226.54 — $251.78

90% Confidence

$222.96 — $255.36

95% Confidence

$219.86 — $258.46

Disclaimer

This analysis is a static projection based on current IV. Real-world events may cause price to move outside these bounds. Not investment advice.

Key takeaways

  • Current IV of 29.73% implies a ±4.12% move in 7 days.
  • The 68% confidence interval is $229.31 to $249.01.
  • Ranges are based on static IV; earnings or news can expand these significantly.