Volatility Analysis

Weekly Volatility Outlook: AAPL

AAPL implied volatility is at 39.93%. We break down the 7-day expected move and probability zones.

4 min read

Market Context

AAPL is trading at $248.04 with an annualized Implied Volatility (IV) of 39.93%.

With 7 days to expiration (Target: Jan 30, 2026), the market is pricing in the following potential range.

Analysis Date

Jan 23, 2026

Target Date

Jan 30, 2026

Price

$248.04

IV

39.93%

Volatility Math (7 Days)

To estimate the expected move, we convert annualized IV to the 7-day timeframe.

Formula: 39.93% × √(7/365) ≈ 5.53%.

In dollar terms, this is approximately ±$13.72.

The market expects AAPL to stay within ±5.53% about 68% of the time over the next 7 days.

Time Factor

0.1385

Exp. Move %

±5.53%

Exp. Move $

±$13.72

Probability Cone

The following table shows the statistical probability ranges based on current volatility.

68% Confidence

$234.33 — $261.75

80% Confidence

$230.46 — $265.62

90% Confidence

$225.48 — $270.60

95% Confidence

$221.16 — $274.92

Disclaimer

This analysis is a static projection based on current IV. Real-world events may cause price to move outside these bounds. Not investment advice.

Key takeaways

  • Current IV of 39.93% implies a ±5.53% move in 7 days.
  • The 68% confidence interval is $234.33 to $261.75.
  • Ranges are based on static IV; earnings or news can expand these significantly.