Volatility Analysis

Weekly Volatility Outlook: TSLA

TSLA implied volatility is at 32.30%. We break down the 7-day expected move and probability zones.

4 min read

Market Context

TSLA is trading at $437.50 with an annualized Implied Volatility (IV) of 32.30%.

With 7 days to expiration (Target: Jan 23, 2026), the market is pricing in the following potential range.

Analysis Date

Jan 16, 2026

Target Date

Jan 23, 2026

Price

$437.50

IV

32.30%

Volatility Math (7 Days)

To estimate the expected move, we convert annualized IV to the 7-day timeframe.

Formula: 32.30% × √(7/365) ≈ 4.47%.

In dollar terms, this is approximately ±$19.56.

The market expects TSLA to stay within ±4.47% about 68% of the time over the next 7 days.

Time Factor

0.1385

Exp. Move %

±4.47%

Exp. Move $

±$19.56

Probability Cone

The following table shows the statistical probability ranges based on current volatility.

68% Confidence

$417.93 — $457.07

80% Confidence

$412.41 — $462.59

90% Confidence

$405.30 — $469.70

95% Confidence

$399.14 — $475.86

Disclaimer

This analysis is a static projection based on current IV. Real-world events may cause price to move outside these bounds. Not investment advice.

Key takeaways

  • Current IV of 32.30% implies a ±4.47% move in 7 days.
  • The 68% confidence interval is $417.93 to $457.07.
  • Ranges are based on static IV; earnings or news can expand these significantly.