Volatility Analysis

Weekly Volatility Outlook: SPY

SPY implied volatility is at 12.26%. We break down the 7-day expected move and probability zones.

4 min read

Market Context

SPY is trading at $691.66 with an annualized Implied Volatility (IV) of 12.26%.

With 7 days to expiration (Target: Jan 23, 2026), the market is pricing in the following potential range.

Analysis Date

Jan 16, 2026

Target Date

Jan 23, 2026

Price

$691.66

IV

12.26%

Volatility Math (7 Days)

To estimate the expected move, we convert annualized IV to the 7-day timeframe.

Formula: 12.26% × √(7/365) ≈ 1.70%.

In dollar terms, this is approximately ±$11.76.

The market expects SPY to stay within ±1.70% about 68% of the time over the next 7 days.

Time Factor

0.1385

Exp. Move %

±1.70%

Exp. Move $

±$11.76

Probability Cone

The following table shows the statistical probability ranges based on current volatility.

68% Confidence

$679.91 — $703.41

80% Confidence

$676.60 — $706.72

90% Confidence

$672.33 — $710.99

95% Confidence

$668.63 — $714.69

Disclaimer

This analysis is a static projection based on current IV. Real-world events may cause price to move outside these bounds. Not investment advice.

Key takeaways

  • Current IV of 12.26% implies a ±1.70% move in 7 days.
  • The 68% confidence interval is $679.91 to $703.41.
  • Ranges are based on static IV; earnings or news can expand these significantly.