Volatility Analysis

Weekly Volatility Outlook: RKLB

RKLB implied volatility is at 78.61%. We break down the 7-day expected move and probability zones.

4 min read

Market Context

RKLB is trading at $96.30 with an annualized Implied Volatility (IV) of 78.61%.

With 7 days to expiration (Target: Jan 23, 2026), the market is pricing in the following potential range.

Analysis Date

Jan 16, 2026

Target Date

Jan 23, 2026

Price

$96.30

IV

78.61%

Volatility Math (7 Days)

To estimate the expected move, we convert annualized IV to the 7-day timeframe.

Formula: 78.61% × √(7/365) ≈ 10.89%.

In dollar terms, this is approximately ±$10.49.

The market expects RKLB to stay within ±10.89% about 68% of the time over the next 7 days.

Time Factor

0.1385

Exp. Move %

±10.89%

Exp. Move $

±$10.49

Probability Cone

The following table shows the statistical probability ranges based on current volatility.

68% Confidence

$85.82 — $106.78

80% Confidence

$82.86 — $109.74

90% Confidence

$79.06 — $113.54

95% Confidence

$75.75 — $116.85

Disclaimer

This analysis is a static projection based on current IV. Real-world events may cause price to move outside these bounds. Not investment advice.

Key takeaways

  • Current IV of 78.61% implies a ±10.89% move in 7 days.
  • The 68% confidence interval is $85.82 to $106.78.
  • Ranges are based on static IV; earnings or news can expand these significantly.