Volatility Analysis

Weekly Volatility Outlook: QQQ

QQQ implied volatility is at 14.97%. We break down the 7-day expected move and probability zones.

4 min read

Market Context

QQQ is trading at $621.26 with an annualized Implied Volatility (IV) of 14.97%.

With 7 days to expiration (Target: Jan 23, 2026), the market is pricing in the following potential range.

Analysis Date

Jan 16, 2026

Target Date

Jan 23, 2026

Price

$621.26

IV

14.97%

Volatility Math (7 Days)

To estimate the expected move, we convert annualized IV to the 7-day timeframe.

Formula: 14.97% × √(7/365) ≈ 2.07%.

In dollar terms, this is approximately ±$12.86.

The market expects QQQ to stay within ±2.07% about 68% of the time over the next 7 days.

Time Factor

0.1385

Exp. Move %

±2.07%

Exp. Move $

±$12.86

Probability Cone

The following table shows the statistical probability ranges based on current volatility.

68% Confidence

$608.38 — $634.14

80% Confidence

$604.75 — $637.77

90% Confidence

$600.08 — $642.44

95% Confidence

$596.02 — $646.50

Disclaimer

This analysis is a static projection based on current IV. Real-world events may cause price to move outside these bounds. Not investment advice.

Key takeaways

  • Current IV of 14.97% implies a ±2.07% move in 7 days.
  • The 68% confidence interval is $608.38 to $634.14.
  • Ranges are based on static IV; earnings or news can expand these significantly.