Volatility Analysis

Weekly Volatility Outlook: ORCL

ORCL implied volatility is at 41.73%. We break down the 7-day expected move and probability zones.

4 min read

Market Context

ORCL is trading at $191.09 with an annualized Implied Volatility (IV) of 41.73%.

With 7 days to expiration (Target: Jan 23, 2026), the market is pricing in the following potential range.

Analysis Date

Jan 16, 2026

Target Date

Jan 23, 2026

Price

$191.09

IV

41.73%

Volatility Math (7 Days)

To estimate the expected move, we convert annualized IV to the 7-day timeframe.

Formula: 41.73% × √(7/365) ≈ 5.78%.

In dollar terms, this is approximately ±$11.05.

The market expects ORCL to stay within ±5.78% about 68% of the time over the next 7 days.

Time Factor

0.1385

Exp. Move %

±5.78%

Exp. Move $

±$11.05

Probability Cone

The following table shows the statistical probability ranges based on current volatility.

68% Confidence

$180.05 — $202.13

80% Confidence

$176.93 — $205.25

90% Confidence

$172.92 — $209.26

95% Confidence

$169.45 — $212.73

Disclaimer

This analysis is a static projection based on current IV. Real-world events may cause price to move outside these bounds. Not investment advice.

Key takeaways

  • Current IV of 41.73% implies a ±5.78% move in 7 days.
  • The 68% confidence interval is $180.05 to $202.13.
  • Ranges are based on static IV; earnings or news can expand these significantly.