Volatility Analysis

Weekly Volatility Outlook: NVDA

NVDA implied volatility is at 31.18%. We break down the 7-day expected move and probability zones.

4 min read

Market Context

NVDA is trading at $186.23 with an annualized Implied Volatility (IV) of 31.18%.

With 7 days to expiration (Target: Jan 23, 2026), the market is pricing in the following potential range.

Analysis Date

Jan 16, 2026

Target Date

Jan 23, 2026

Price

$186.23

IV

31.18%

Volatility Math (7 Days)

To estimate the expected move, we convert annualized IV to the 7-day timeframe.

Formula: 31.18% × √(7/365) ≈ 4.32%.

In dollar terms, this is approximately ±$8.05.

The market expects NVDA to stay within ±4.32% about 68% of the time over the next 7 days.

Time Factor

0.1385

Exp. Move %

±4.32%

Exp. Move $

±$8.05

Probability Cone

The following table shows the statistical probability ranges based on current volatility.

68% Confidence

$178.19 — $194.27

80% Confidence

$175.92 — $196.54

90% Confidence

$173.00 — $199.46

95% Confidence

$170.47 — $201.99

Disclaimer

This analysis is a static projection based on current IV. Real-world events may cause price to move outside these bounds. Not investment advice.

Key takeaways

  • Current IV of 31.18% implies a ±4.32% move in 7 days.
  • The 68% confidence interval is $178.19 to $194.27.
  • Ranges are based on static IV; earnings or news can expand these significantly.