Volatility Analysis

Weekly Volatility Outlook: MSFT

MSFT implied volatility is at 19.87%. We break down the 7-day expected move and probability zones.

4 min read

Market Context

MSFT is trading at $459.86 with an annualized Implied Volatility (IV) of 19.87%.

With 7 days to expiration (Target: Jan 23, 2026), the market is pricing in the following potential range.

Analysis Date

Jan 16, 2026

Target Date

Jan 23, 2026

Price

$459.86

IV

19.87%

Volatility Math (7 Days)

To estimate the expected move, we convert annualized IV to the 7-day timeframe.

Formula: 19.87% × √(7/365) ≈ 2.75%.

In dollar terms, this is approximately ±$12.65.

The market expects MSFT to stay within ±2.75% about 68% of the time over the next 7 days.

Time Factor

0.1385

Exp. Move %

±2.75%

Exp. Move $

±$12.65

Probability Cone

The following table shows the statistical probability ranges based on current volatility.

68% Confidence

$447.21 — $472.51

80% Confidence

$443.64 — $476.08

90% Confidence

$439.04 — $480.68

95% Confidence

$435.06 — $484.66

Disclaimer

This analysis is a static projection based on current IV. Real-world events may cause price to move outside these bounds. Not investment advice.

Key takeaways

  • Current IV of 19.87% implies a ±2.75% move in 7 days.
  • The 68% confidence interval is $447.21 to $472.51.
  • Ranges are based on static IV; earnings or news can expand these significantly.