Volatility Analysis

Weekly Volatility Outlook: META

META implied volatility is at 23.59%. We break down the 7-day expected move and probability zones.

4 min read

Market Context

META is trading at $620.25 with an annualized Implied Volatility (IV) of 23.59%.

With 7 days to expiration (Target: Jan 23, 2026), the market is pricing in the following potential range.

Analysis Date

Jan 16, 2026

Target Date

Jan 23, 2026

Price

$620.25

IV

23.59%

Volatility Math (7 Days)

To estimate the expected move, we convert annualized IV to the 7-day timeframe.

Formula: 23.59% × √(7/365) ≈ 3.27%.

In dollar terms, this is approximately ±$20.28.

The market expects META to stay within ±3.27% about 68% of the time over the next 7 days.

Time Factor

0.1385

Exp. Move %

±3.27%

Exp. Move $

±$20.28

Probability Cone

The following table shows the statistical probability ranges based on current volatility.

68% Confidence

$599.98 — $640.52

80% Confidence

$594.27 — $646.23

90% Confidence

$586.91 — $653.59

95% Confidence

$580.53 — $659.97

Disclaimer

This analysis is a static projection based on current IV. Real-world events may cause price to move outside these bounds. Not investment advice.

Key takeaways

  • Current IV of 23.59% implies a ±3.27% move in 7 days.
  • The 68% confidence interval is $599.98 to $640.52.
  • Ranges are based on static IV; earnings or news can expand these significantly.