Volatility Analysis

Weekly Volatility Outlook: FCX

FCX implied volatility is at 48.64%. We break down the 7-day expected move and probability zones.

4 min read

Market Context

FCX is trading at $58.71 with an annualized Implied Volatility (IV) of 48.64%.

With 7 days to expiration (Target: Jan 23, 2026), the market is pricing in the following potential range.

Analysis Date

Jan 16, 2026

Target Date

Jan 23, 2026

Price

$58.71

IV

48.64%

Volatility Math (7 Days)

To estimate the expected move, we convert annualized IV to the 7-day timeframe.

Formula: 48.64% × √(7/365) ≈ 6.74%.

In dollar terms, this is approximately ±$3.96.

The market expects FCX to stay within ±6.74% about 68% of the time over the next 7 days.

Time Factor

0.1385

Exp. Move %

±6.74%

Exp. Move $

±$3.96

Probability Cone

The following table shows the statistical probability ranges based on current volatility.

68% Confidence

$54.76 — $62.66

80% Confidence

$53.64 — $63.78

90% Confidence

$52.20 — $65.22

95% Confidence

$50.96 — $66.46

Disclaimer

This analysis is a static projection based on current IV. Real-world events may cause price to move outside these bounds. Not investment advice.

Key takeaways

  • Current IV of 48.64% implies a ±6.74% move in 7 days.
  • The 68% confidence interval is $54.76 to $62.66.
  • Ranges are based on static IV; earnings or news can expand these significantly.