Volatility Analysis

Weekly Volatility Outlook: COIN

COIN implied volatility is at 46.95%. We break down the 7-day expected move and probability zones.

4 min read

Market Context

COIN is trading at $241.15 with an annualized Implied Volatility (IV) of 46.95%.

With 7 days to expiration (Target: Jan 23, 2026), the market is pricing in the following potential range.

Analysis Date

Jan 16, 2026

Target Date

Jan 23, 2026

Price

$241.15

IV

46.95%

Volatility Math (7 Days)

To estimate the expected move, we convert annualized IV to the 7-day timeframe.

Formula: 46.95% × √(7/365) ≈ 6.50%.

In dollar terms, this is approximately ±$15.67.

The market expects COIN to stay within ±6.50% about 68% of the time over the next 7 days.

Time Factor

0.1385

Exp. Move %

±6.50%

Exp. Move $

±$15.67

Probability Cone

The following table shows the statistical probability ranges based on current volatility.

68% Confidence

$225.47 — $256.83

80% Confidence

$221.05 — $261.25

90% Confidence

$215.36 — $266.94

95% Confidence

$210.42 — $271.88

Disclaimer

This analysis is a static projection based on current IV. Real-world events may cause price to move outside these bounds. Not investment advice.

Key takeaways

  • Current IV of 46.95% implies a ±6.50% move in 7 days.
  • The 68% confidence interval is $225.47 to $256.83.
  • Ranges are based on static IV; earnings or news can expand these significantly.