Volatility Analysis

Weekly Volatility Outlook: BA

BA implied volatility is at 23.78%. We break down the 7-day expected move and probability zones.

4 min read

Market Context

BA is trading at $247.68 with an annualized Implied Volatility (IV) of 23.78%.

With 7 days to expiration (Target: Jan 23, 2026), the market is pricing in the following potential range.

Analysis Date

Jan 16, 2026

Target Date

Jan 23, 2026

Price

$247.68

IV

23.78%

Volatility Math (7 Days)

To estimate the expected move, we convert annualized IV to the 7-day timeframe.

Formula: 23.78% × √(7/365) ≈ 3.29%.

In dollar terms, this is approximately ±$8.15.

The market expects BA to stay within ±3.29% about 68% of the time over the next 7 days.

Time Factor

0.1385

Exp. Move %

±3.29%

Exp. Move $

±$8.15

Probability Cone

The following table shows the statistical probability ranges based on current volatility.

68% Confidence

$239.52 — $255.84

80% Confidence

$237.22 — $258.14

90% Confidence

$234.26 — $261.10

95% Confidence

$231.69 — $263.67

Disclaimer

This analysis is a static projection based on current IV. Real-world events may cause price to move outside these bounds. Not investment advice.

Key takeaways

  • Current IV of 23.78% implies a ±3.29% move in 7 days.
  • The 68% confidence interval is $239.52 to $255.84.
  • Ranges are based on static IV; earnings or news can expand these significantly.