Volatility Analysis

Weekly Volatility Outlook: AMZN

AMZN implied volatility is at 30.00%. We break down the 7-day expected move and probability zones.

4 min read

Market Context

AMZN is trading at $239.12 with an annualized Implied Volatility (IV) of 30.00%.

With 7 days to expiration (Target: Jan 23, 2026), the market is pricing in the following potential range.

Analysis Date

Jan 16, 2026

Target Date

Jan 23, 2026

Price

$239.12

IV

30.00%

Volatility Math (7 Days)

To estimate the expected move, we convert annualized IV to the 7-day timeframe.

Formula: 30.00% × √(7/365) ≈ 4.15%.

In dollar terms, this is approximately ±$9.92.

The market expects AMZN to stay within ±4.15% about 68% of the time over the next 7 days.

Time Factor

0.1385

Exp. Move %

±4.15%

Exp. Move $

±$9.92

Probability Cone

The following table shows the statistical probability ranges based on current volatility.

68% Confidence

$229.19 — $249.05

80% Confidence

$219.48 — $251.86

90% Confidence

$222.78 — $255.46

95% Confidence

$219.65 — $258.59

Disclaimer

This analysis is a static projection based on current IV. Real-world events may cause price to move outside these bounds. Not investment advice.

Key takeaways

  • Current IV of 30.00% implies a ±4.15% move in 7 days.
  • The 68% confidence interval is $229.19 to $249.05.
  • Ranges are based on static IV; earnings or news can expand these significantly.