Volatility Analysis

Weekly Volatility Outlook: AAPL

AAPL implied volatility is at 20.02%. We break down the 7-day expected move and probability zones.

4 min read

Market Context

AAPL is trading at $255.53 with an annualized Implied Volatility (IV) of 20.02%.

With 7 days to expiration (Target: Jan 23, 2026), the market is pricing in the following potential range.

Analysis Date

Jan 16, 2026

Target Date

Jan 23, 2026

Price

$255.53

IV

20.02%

Volatility Math (7 Days)

To estimate the expected move, we convert annualized IV to the 7-day timeframe.

Formula: 20.02% × √(7/365) ≈ 2.77%.

In dollar terms, this is approximately ±$7.08.

The market expects AAPL to stay within ±2.77% about 68% of the time over the next 7 days.

Time Factor

0.1385

Exp. Move %

±2.77%

Exp. Move $

±$7.08

Probability Cone

The following table shows the statistical probability ranges based on current volatility.

68% Confidence

$248.44 — $262.62

80% Confidence

$246.45 — $264.61

90% Confidence

$243.87 — $267.19

95% Confidence

$241.64 — $269.42

Disclaimer

This analysis is a static projection based on current IV. Real-world events may cause price to move outside these bounds. Not investment advice.

Key takeaways

  • Current IV of 20.02% implies a ±2.77% move in 7 days.
  • The 68% confidence interval is $248.44 to $262.62.
  • Ranges are based on static IV; earnings or news can expand these significantly.