Volatility Analysis

Weekly Volatility Outlook: TSLA

TSLA implied volatility is at 36.09%. We break down the 7-day expected move and probability zones.

4 min read

Market Context

TSLA is trading at $445.01 with an annualized Implied Volatility (IV) of 36.09%.

With 7 days to expiration (Target: Jan 16, 2026), the market is pricing in the following potential range.

Analysis Date

Jan 9, 2026

Target Date

Jan 16, 2026

Price

$445.01

IV

36.09%

Volatility Math (7 Days)

To estimate the expected move, we convert annualized IV to the 7-day timeframe.

Formula: 36.09% × √(7/365) ≈ 5.00%.

In dollar terms, this is approximately ±$22.25.

The market expects TSLA to stay within ±5.00% about 68% of the time over the next 7 days.

Time Factor

0.1385

Exp. Move %

±5.00%

Exp. Move $

±$22.25

Probability Cone

The following table shows the statistical probability ranges based on current volatility.

68% Confidence

$422.77 — $467.25

80% Confidence

$416.49 — $473.53

90% Confidence

$408.42 — $481.60

95% Confidence

$401.41 — $488.61

Disclaimer

This analysis is a static projection based on current IV. Real-world events may cause price to move outside these bounds. Not investment advice.

Key takeaways

  • Current IV of 36.09% implies a ±5.00% move in 7 days.
  • The 68% confidence interval is $422.77 to $467.25.
  • Ranges are based on static IV; earnings or news can expand these significantly.