Volatility Analysis

Weekly Volatility Outlook: SPY

SPY implied volatility is at 12.15%. We break down the 7-day expected move and probability zones.

4 min read

Market Context

SPY is trading at $694.07 with an annualized Implied Volatility (IV) of 12.15%.

With 7 days to expiration (Target: Jan 16, 2026), the market is pricing in the following potential range.

Analysis Date

Jan 9, 2026

Target Date

Jan 16, 2026

Price

$694.07

IV

12.15%

Volatility Math (7 Days)

To estimate the expected move, we convert annualized IV to the 7-day timeframe.

Formula: 12.15% × √(7/365) ≈ 1.68%.

In dollar terms, this is approximately ±$11.66.

The market expects SPY to stay within ±1.68% about 68% of the time over the next 7 days.

Time Factor

0.1385

Exp. Move %

±1.68%

Exp. Move $

±$11.66

Probability Cone

The following table shows the statistical probability ranges based on current volatility.

68% Confidence

$682.39 — $705.75

80% Confidence

$679.10 — $709.04

90% Confidence

$674.86 — $713.28

95% Confidence

$671.18 — $716.96

Disclaimer

This analysis is a static projection based on current IV. Real-world events may cause price to move outside these bounds. Not investment advice.

Key takeaways

  • Current IV of 12.15% implies a ±1.68% move in 7 days.
  • The 68% confidence interval is $682.39 to $705.75.
  • Ranges are based on static IV; earnings or news can expand these significantly.