Volatility Analysis

Weekly Volatility Outlook: SMCI

SMCI implied volatility is at 59.37%. We break down the 7-day expected move and probability zones.

4 min read

Market Context

SMCI is trading at $30.16 with an annualized Implied Volatility (IV) of 59.37%.

With 7 days to expiration (Target: Jan 16, 2026), the market is pricing in the following potential range.

Analysis Date

Jan 9, 2026

Target Date

Jan 16, 2026

Price

$30.16

IV

59.37%

Volatility Math (7 Days)

To estimate the expected move, we convert annualized IV to the 7-day timeframe.

Formula: 59.37% × √(7/365) ≈ 8.22%.

In dollar terms, this is approximately ±$2.48.

The market expects SMCI to stay within ±8.22% about 68% of the time over the next 7 days.

Time Factor

0.1385

Exp. Move %

±8.22%

Exp. Move $

±$2.48

Probability Cone

The following table shows the statistical probability ranges based on current volatility.

68% Confidence

$27.68 — $32.64

80% Confidence

$26.98 — $33.34

90% Confidence

$26.08 — $34.24

95% Confidence

$25.30 — $35.02

Disclaimer

This analysis is a static projection based on current IV. Real-world events may cause price to move outside these bounds. Not investment advice.

Key takeaways

  • Current IV of 59.37% implies a ±8.22% move in 7 days.
  • The 68% confidence interval is $27.68 to $32.64.
  • Ranges are based on static IV; earnings or news can expand these significantly.