Volatility Analysis

Weekly Volatility Outlook: RKLB

RKLB implied volatility is at 89.72%. We break down the 7-day expected move and probability zones.

4 min read

Market Context

RKLB is trading at $84.85 with an annualized Implied Volatility (IV) of 89.72%.

With 7 days to expiration (Target: Jan 16, 2026), the market is pricing in the following potential range.

Analysis Date

Jan 9, 2026

Target Date

Jan 16, 2026

Price

$84.85

IV

89.72%

Volatility Math (7 Days)

To estimate the expected move, we convert annualized IV to the 7-day timeframe.

Formula: 89.72% × √(7/365) ≈ 12.43%.

In dollar terms, this is approximately ±$10.55.

The market expects RKLB to stay within ±12.43% about 68% of the time over the next 7 days.

Time Factor

0.1385

Exp. Move %

±12.43%

Exp. Move $

±$10.55

Probability Cone

The following table shows the statistical probability ranges based on current volatility.

68% Confidence

$74.31 — $95.39

80% Confidence

$71.33 — $98.37

90% Confidence

$67.51 — $102.19

95% Confidence

$64.19 — $105.51

Disclaimer

This analysis is a static projection based on current IV. Real-world events may cause price to move outside these bounds. Not investment advice.

Key takeaways

  • Current IV of 89.72% implies a ±12.43% move in 7 days.
  • The 68% confidence interval is $74.31 to $95.39.
  • Ranges are based on static IV; earnings or news can expand these significantly.