Volatility Analysis

Weekly Volatility Outlook: QQQ

QQQ implied volatility is at 15.34%. We break down the 7-day expected move and probability zones.

4 min read

Market Context

QQQ is trading at $626.65 with an annualized Implied Volatility (IV) of 15.34%.

With 7 days to expiration (Target: Jan 16, 2026), the market is pricing in the following potential range.

Analysis Date

Jan 9, 2026

Target Date

Jan 16, 2026

Price

$626.65

IV

15.34%

Volatility Math (7 Days)

To estimate the expected move, we convert annualized IV to the 7-day timeframe.

Formula: 15.34% × √(7/365) ≈ 2.12%.

In dollar terms, this is approximately ±$13.28.

The market expects QQQ to stay within ±2.12% about 68% of the time over the next 7 days.

Time Factor

0.1385

Exp. Move %

±2.12%

Exp. Move $

±$13.28

Probability Cone

The following table shows the statistical probability ranges based on current volatility.

68% Confidence

$613.33 — $639.97

80% Confidence

$609.58 — $643.72

90% Confidence

$604.74 — $648.56

95% Confidence

$600.55 — $652.75

Disclaimer

This analysis is a static projection based on current IV. Real-world events may cause price to move outside these bounds. Not investment advice.

Key takeaways

  • Current IV of 15.34% implies a ±2.12% move in 7 days.
  • The 68% confidence interval is $613.33 to $639.97.
  • Ranges are based on static IV; earnings or news can expand these significantly.